Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Golden Eagles UL @ USM

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

1-10  |  Road

54
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:30 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

6-5  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
86.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Southern Miss)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

1.4%

Golden Eagles Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

UL By 1-7 points

1.1%

UL By 8-14 points

0.1%

USM By 1-7 points

5.8%

USM By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
32
LOUISIANA
54
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
72
LOUISIANA
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 86.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 USM @ UL 74 - 67
Dec 18, 2025 UL @ USM 54 - 62
Feb 22, 2025 UL @ USM 62 - 60
Jan 25, 2025 USM @ UL 67 - 59
Mar 1, 2024 USM @ UL 61 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.0% more
Southern Miss: 3.6 vs Louisiana: 2.7
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
Southern Miss: 7.0 vs Louisiana: 5.6
Assists (L5) +23.3% more
Southern Miss: 12.3 vs Louisiana: 10.0
Rebounding (L5) +16.4% more
Southern Miss: 34.9 vs Louisiana: 30.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 32.0 54
USM Score 54.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.0 / 29.1 33.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.3 / 10.0 5.0 / 4.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.7 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 34.9 31.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 65.1 67.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 30.0 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 14.3 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
UL
USM
UL
ML
53% 18-16
66% 21-11
73% 24-9
63% 19-11
ATS
59% 20-14
66% 21-11
74% 25-9
63% 19-11
TTL
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 1 hour, 31 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 7 hours, 33 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago