TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
16-11 | Road
111
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
11-16 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
BUCKS
0%
RAPTORS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
TOR By 1-7 points
24.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
113
TORONTO
Milwaukee
114
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Toronto
110
TORONTO
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.0
Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
TOR @ MIL
122 - 94
Dec 18, 2025
TOR @ MIL
111 - 105
Nov 4, 2025
MIL @ TOR
100 - 128
Oct 24, 2025
MIL @ TOR
122 - 116
Jan 17, 2025
TOR @ MIL
112 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Milwaukee: 75.3%
vs
Toronto: 71.3%
Blocks (L5)
+34.8% more
Toronto: 5.1
vs
Milwaukee: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+14.8% more
Toronto: 28.9
vs
Milwaukee: 24.6
Steals (L5)
+11.9% more
Toronto: 8.7
vs
Milwaukee: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
113.0
111
MIL Score
114.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 36.0
41.0 / 37.0
Assists
24.6 / 28.9
25.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.3 / 5.1
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 45.9
45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 71.3
88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 42.0
38.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.7
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 17.2
16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TOR
MIL
TOR
ML
64%
61-35
55%
57-47
60%
49-32
55%
48-39
ATS
68%
65-31
61%
62-40-2
60%
49-32
55%
48-39
TTL
55%
53-43
60%
62-42
100%
81-0
100%
87-0
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