WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
4-20 | Road
94
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
18-7 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
SPURS
0%
WIZARDS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
WSH By 1-7 points
15.3%
WSH By 8-14 points
5.8%
SA By 1-7 points
26.2%
SA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
110
WASHINGTON
San Antonio
117
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Washington
113
WASHINGTON
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
SA @ WSH
124 - 113
Dec 18, 2025
WSH @ SA
94 - 119
Feb 10, 2025
SA @ WSH
131 - 121
Nov 13, 2024
WSH @ SA
130 - 139
Jan 29, 2024
WSH @ SA
118 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.2% more
San Antonio: 6.7
vs
Washington: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
San Antonio: 77.2%
vs
Washington: 74.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+13.6% more
Washington: 14.8
vs
San Antonio: 12.8
Blocks (L5)
+13.0% more
Washington: 4.9
vs
San Antonio: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
110.0
94
SA Score
117.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 36.2
36.0 / 25.0
Assists
25.8 / 24.1
29.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.9
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 46.9
49.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 74.1
80.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
45.5 / 45.9
53.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.8
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 14.8
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
WSH
SA
WSH
ML
60%
111-73
70%
112-49
58%
61-44
47%
39-44
ATS
58%
107-76-1
69%
111-49-1
58%
61-44
47%
39-44
TTL
74%
134-47-3
74%
119-41-1
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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