GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
13-14 | Road
98
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
14-12 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
SUNS
0%
WARRIORS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
GS By 1-7 points
18.6%
GS By 8-14 points
8.0%
PHX By 1-7 points
27.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
122
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
127
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Loss
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.9% more
Golden State: 3.9
vs
Phoenix: 3.1
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
Golden State: 29.3
vs
Phoenix: 25.4
Rebounding (L5)
+10.1% more
Golden State: 42.2
vs
Phoenix: 37.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Golden State: 41.5%
vs
Phoenix: 32.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
122.0
98
PHX Score
127.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 41.5
29.0 / 29.0
Assists
25.4 / 29.3
19.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.9
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 47.0
41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
77.5 / 79.0
77.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 42.2
49.0 / 54.0
Steals
11.1 / 10.4
16.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 15.5
15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
GS
PHX
GS
ML
57%
60-45
55%
95-79
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
101-73
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
77%
134-40
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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