TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
15-12-5 | Road
0
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
18-11-4 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brandon Duhaime
#24 | Right Wing@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
0.00
--
Save %
1.000
--
SO
1
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TOR By 1 goal
0.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
0.3%
WSH By 1 goal
6.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
1
TORONTO
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
WSH @ TOR
4 - 0
Dec 18, 2025
TOR @ WSH
0 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
TOR @ WSH
2 - 4
Dec 28, 2024
WSH @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 6, 2024
WSH @ TOR
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+32.2% more
Toronto: 5.5
vs
Washington: 3.7
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Toronto: 24.7
vs
Washington: 18.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.6%
Toronto: 55.9%
vs
Washington: 48.3%
Power Play % (L5)
+7.5%
Toronto: 16.9%
vs
Washington: 9.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
1.0
0
WSH Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 14.6
12.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
48.3 / 55.9
45.8 / 54.2
Hits
18.6 / 24.7
13.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
941.0 / 1693.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.5 / 27.0
29.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 5.5
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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