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UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

8-3  |  Road

71
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:30 PM ET
Gentry Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

6-4  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
SKYHAWKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Tennessee State)
SkyhawksUTM (-3.5) 0 TigersTNST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

0.0%

Tigers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TNST -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

UTM By 1-7 points

0.0%

UTM By 8-14 points

0.0%

TNST By 1-7 points

0.0%

TNST By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
57
UT MARTIN
107
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
72
UT MARTIN
76
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UTM @ TNST 55 - 68
Feb 28, 2026 TNST @ UTM 67 - 42
Dec 18, 2025 UTM @ TNST 71 - 78
Feb 18, 2025 TNST @ UTM 86 - 75
Jan 21, 2025 UTM @ TNST 80 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.7% more
UT Martin: 4.8 vs Tennessee State: 2.4
Assists (L5) +32.9% more
UT Martin: 16.4 vs Tennessee State: 11.0
Rebounding (L5) +17.8% more
UT Martin: 48.2 vs Tennessee State: 39.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
UT Martin: 30.0% vs Tennessee State: 18.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 57.0 71
TNST Score 107.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 18.7 / 30.0 40.0 / 21.0
Assists 11.0 / 16.4 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.8 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 41.0 50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 61.4 / 65.4 78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 48.2 32.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.7 / 10.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 15.5 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
UTM
TNST
UTM
ML
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
63% 17-10
69% 20-9
ATS
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
64% 18-10
69% 20-9
TTL
52% 16-15
44% 14-18
100% 28-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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