PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
4-7 | Road
78
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
2-9 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
0%
BEACH
100%
WAVES
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Pepperdine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PEPP -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)
PEPP By 1-7 points
20.1%
PEPP By 8-14 points
27.2%
LBSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
LBSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pepperdine
77
PEPPERDINE
Long Beach State
65
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Pepperdine
72
PEPPERDINE
Long Beach State
75
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Waves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Waves (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 18, 2025
PEPP @ LBSU
78 - 81
Dec 19, 2024
LBSU @ PEPP
79 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+8.7% more
Pepperdine: 13.2
vs
Long Beach State: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Pepperdine: 77.1%
vs
Long Beach State: 74.7%
Blocks (L5)
+75.6% more
Long Beach State: 2.4
vs
Pepperdine: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+21.5% more
Long Beach State: 6.6
vs
Pepperdine: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score
77.0
78
LBSU Score
65.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 30.0
60.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.9 / 12.4
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 40.3
54.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 77.1
79.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 33.6
21.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.6 / 5.4
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 13.2
9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
LBSU
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
PEPP
LBSU
PEPP
ML
55%
17-14
62%
20-12
65%
20-11
69%
22-10
ATS
68%
21-10
56%
18-14
65%
20-11
69%
22-10
TTL
61%
19-12
50%
16-16
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
