Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Friars @ Hokies PROV @ VT

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

1-0  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:30 PM ET
Mohegan Sun Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

1-0  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
📊
HOKIES
0%
FRIARS --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Virginia Tech)
FriarsPROV (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Friars Cover

5.5%

Hokies Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VT -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

PROV By 1-7 points

4.0%

PROV By 8-14 points

0.8%

VT By 1-7 points

13.7%

VT By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
PROVIDENCE
70
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
68
PROVIDENCE
72
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hokies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hokies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hokies (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Hokies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.0 Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u158.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 PROV @ VT 101 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +13.8% more
Virginia Tech: 3.9 vs Providence: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Virginia Tech: 13.5 vs Providence: 12.3
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Providence: 15.2 vs Virginia Tech: 12.3
Steals (L5) +12.5% more
Providence: 7.3 vs Virginia Tech: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PROV Score 54.0 101
VT Score 70.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 31.8 43.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.3 / 15.2 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.4 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 45.3 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 63.2 / 67.6 68.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 39.5 42.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.3 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 12.3 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
VT Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
VT
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
PROV
VT
PROV
ML
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
ATS
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
TTL
69% 22-10
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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