Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Tigers SAM @ TXSO

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

1-1  |  Road

93
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:30 PM ET
H&PE Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

0-2  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Texas Southern)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 TigersTXSO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

21.2%

Tigers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXSO -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

SAM By 1-7 points

13.7%

SAM By 8-14 points

4.8%

TXSO By 1-7 points

25.3%

TXSO By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SAMFORD
71
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
70
SAMFORD
82
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 SAM @ TXSO 93 - 90
Nov 17, 2024 TXSO @ SAM 82 - 97
Dec 21, 2023 SAM @ TXSO 87 - 65
Nov 20, 2022 TXSO @ SAM 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.1% more
Texas Southern: 18.6 vs Samford: 11.7
Steals (L5) +18.9% more
Samford: 7.0 vs Texas Southern: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +17.5% more
Samford: 2.6 vs Texas Southern: 2.2
Assists (L5) +16.1% more
Samford: 15.8 vs Texas Southern: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 63.0 93
TXSO Score 71.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 37.2 67.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.2 / 15.8 7.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.6 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 43.8 51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 62.2 / 68.0 67.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 34.2 38.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.0 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 18.6 / 11.7 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
SAM
TXSO
SAM
ML
64% 18-10
65% 20-11
71% 17-7
68% 21-10
ATS
61% 17-11
68% 21-10
71% 17-7
68% 21-10
TTL
71% 20-8
35% 11-20
100% 24-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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