BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
4-2 | Road
87
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
19-15 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
BRUINS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Toledo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)
BEL By 1-7 points
0.3%
BEL By 8-14 points
0.0%
TOL By 1-7 points
2.2%
TOL By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Belmont
66
BELMONT
Toledo
93
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Belmont
78
BELMONT
Toledo
81
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
BEL @ TOL
87 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+8.8% more
Toledo: 9.0
vs
Belmont: 8.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Toledo: 77.7%
vs
Belmont: 69.7%
Assists (L5)
+19.7% more
Belmont: 20.5
vs
Toledo: 16.5
Rebounding (L5)
+18.8% more
Belmont: 42.6
vs
Toledo: 34.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BEL Score
66.0
87
TOL Score
93.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 37.3
35.0 / 50.0
Assists
16.5 / 20.5
13.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 50.8
44.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 69.7
69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 42.6
21.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.3
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 13.6
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BEL
TOL
BEL
ML
48%
16-17
47%
15-17
61%
20-13
62%
20-12
ATS
48%
16-17
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
62%
20-12
TTL
64%
21-12
44%
14-18
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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