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ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

30-7  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Michelob ULTRA Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

22-16  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
RED STORM --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Auburn)
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

18.4%

Tigers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AUB -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

SJU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SJU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AUB By 1-7 points

24.3%

AUB By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
ST. JOHN'S
75
AUBURN
Simulated Score
71
ST. JOHN'S
78
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 SJU @ AUB 74 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
Auburn: 8.6 vs St. John's: 7.0
Assists (L5) +31.7% more
St. John's: 17.9 vs Auburn: 12.3
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
St. John's: 4.8 vs Auburn: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
St. John's: 10.7 vs Auburn: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 66.0 74
AUB Score 75.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 38.7 43.0 / 28.0
Assists 12.3 / 17.9 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.8 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 50.1 55.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 71.3 84.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 39.4 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.6 / 7.0 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 10.7 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
SJU
AUB
SJU
ML
58% 22-16
62% 18-11
75% 24-8
62% 18-11
ATS
74% 28-10
66% 19-10
75% 24-8
62% 18-11
TTL
53% 20-18
59% 17-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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