Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Hilltoppers USF @ WKU

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

25-9  |  Road

97
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 5:30 PM ET
Imperial Arena
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

18-14  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
HILLTOPPERS
0%
BULLS --
HILLTOPPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Western Kentucky)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 HilltoppersWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

2.9%

Hilltoppers Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WKU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

USF By 1-7 points

2.2%

USF By 8-14 points

0.4%

WKU By 1-7 points

9.3%

WKU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
36
SOUTH FLORIDA
55
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH FLORIDA
72
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hilltoppers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hilltoppers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hilltoppers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Hilltoppers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 USF @ WKU 97 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Western Kentucky: 12.1 vs South Florida: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Western Kentucky: 72.3% vs South Florida: 68.4%
Blocks (L5) +56.4% more
South Florida: 4.7 vs Western Kentucky: 2.0
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
South Florida: 44.3% vs Western Kentucky: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 36.0 97
WKU Score 55.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 27.3 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.7 14.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.0 / 4.7 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 44.3 45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 68.4 68.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 41.7 / 39.2 45.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.1 / 9.7 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.8 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
WKU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
WKU
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
USF
WKU
USF
ML
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
ATS
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
TTL
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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