FURMAN
PALADINSFUR
22-13 | Road
65
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
23-13 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
PALADINS
100%
REDBIRDS
0%
PALADINS
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
FUR By 1-7 points
23.0%
FUR By 8-14 points
12.2%
ILST By 1-7 points
26.8%
ILST By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Furman
66
FURMAN
Illinois State
68
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Furman
71
FURMAN
Illinois State
76
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Redbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
FUR @ ILST
65 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.3%
Illinois State: 67.5%
vs
Furman: 54.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
Illinois State: 38.0%
vs
Furman: 30.6%
Blocks (L5)
+44.3% more
Furman: 3.9
vs
Illinois State: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+35.6% more
Furman: 12.2
vs
Illinois State: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FUR Score
66.0
65
ILST Score
68.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 30.6
33.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.3 / 17.1
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 49.4
46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
67.5 / 54.2
67.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 38.4
35.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.5
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 12.2
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FUR
22-13-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FUR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
FUR
ILST
FUR
ML
42%
15-21
71%
25-10
71%
24-10
62%
21-13
ATS
58%
21-15
63%
22-13
71%
24-10
62%
21-13
TTL
58%
21-15
57%
20-15
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
