Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Warriors LAL @ GS

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

0-1  |  Road

103
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-0  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
LAKERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Golden State)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

19.7%

Warriors Cover

80.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

LAL By 1-7 points

12.9%

LAL By 8-14 points

4.4%

GS By 1-7 points

24.8%

GS By 8-14 points

26.6%

AI Model Projected Score
100.93
LOS ANGELES
109.45
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
115
LOS ANGELES
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 210.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.0% more
Golden State: 10.2 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Golden State: 21.4 vs Los Angeles: 18.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Golden State: 32.8% vs Los Angeles: 29.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Golden State: 43.3% vs Los Angeles: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 100.9 103
GS Score 109.5 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 29.0 39.5 / 35.3
Assists 21.4 / 18.4 35.0 / 25.0
Blocks 2.7 / 5.3 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 40.1 46.4 / 41.7
Free Throw % 76.5 / 79.2 76.2 / 77.8
Rebounding 39.9 / 41.4 44.0 / 43.0
Steals 10.2 / 6.8 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 17.2 21.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
LAL
GS
LAL
ML
55% 95-79
61% 68-43
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 101-73
61% 67-43-1
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
TTL
77% 134-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 84-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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