SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
1-0 | Road
112
MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-2 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
HEAT
0%
SPURS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SA By 1-7 points
19.4%
SA By 8-14 points
8.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
22.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
107.23
SAN ANTONIO
Miami
111.71
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Antonio
105
SAN ANTONIO
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
SA @ MIA
136 - 111
Oct 30, 2025
MIA @ SA
101 - 107
Oct 8, 2025
SA @ MIA
112 - 107
Feb 1, 2025
MIA @ SA
105 - 103
Jan 19, 2025
SA @ MIA
107 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.5% more
Miami: 18.8
vs
San Antonio: 14.1
Blocks (L5)
+31.5% more
Miami: 4.0
vs
San Antonio: 3.0
Steals (L5)
+15.4% more
San Antonio: 8.5
vs
Miami: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.4%
San Antonio: 78.6%
vs
Miami: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
107.2
112
MIA Score
111.7
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 36.6
34.5 / 36.1
Assists
24.1 / 25.1
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.0
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 47.8
45.7 / 46.5
Free Throw %
69.1 / 78.6
76.7 / 70.4
Rebounding
46.9 / 44.0
36.0 / 49.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.5
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
18.8 / 14.1
19.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SA
MIA
SA
ML
48%
46-50
60%
111-73
59%
48-34
58%
61-44
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
107-76-1
59%
48-34
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
57-39
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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