Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Knicks MIN @ NY

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

1-1  |  Road

95
FINAL
Thu, Oct 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

2-0  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (New York)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

36.8%

Knicks Cover

63.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

MIN By 1-7 points

21.1%

MIN By 8-14 points

10.2%

NY By 1-7 points

27.3%

NY By 8-14 points

20.7%

AI Model Projected Score
109.44
MINNESOTA
112.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
108
MINNESOTA
112
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knicks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 NY @ MIN 104 - 115
Nov 5, 2025 MIN @ NY 114 - 137
Oct 9, 2025 MIN @ NY 95 - 100
Jan 17, 2025 MIN @ NY 116 - 99
Dec 19, 2024 NY @ MIN 133 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
New York: 46.1 vs Minnesota: 41.3
Steals (L5) +10.1% more
New York: 10.1 vs Minnesota: 9.2
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
Minnesota: 26.2 vs New York: 20.3
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
Minnesota: 4.5 vs New York: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 109.4 95
NY Score 112.8 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 44.1 26.3 / 39.5
Assists 20.3 / 26.2 22.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.5 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 48.1 34.3 / 37.6
Free Throw % 72.8 / 77.7 75.0 / 84.2
Rebounding 46.1 / 41.3 55.0 / 55.0
Steals 10.1 / 9.2 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 17.8 12.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
MIN
NY
MIN
ML
61% 114-72
54% 63-53
56% 57-45
54% 50-43
ATS
67% 124-62
58% 67-49
56% 57-45
54% 50-43
TTL
72% 133-53
63% 72-43-1
100% 102-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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