Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Spurs UTAH @ SA

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

0-1  |  Road

130
FINAL
Fri, Oct 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

2-0  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
JAZZ --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (San Antonio)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

28.2%

Spurs Cover

71.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

UTAH By 1-7 points

17.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

7.1%

SA By 1-7 points

27.0%

SA By 8-14 points

24.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106.02
UTAH
111.8
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
107
UTAH
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 SA @ UTAH 126 - 109
Jan 19, 2026 UTAH @ SA 110 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 UTAH @ SA 127 - 114
Oct 10, 2025 UTAH @ SA 130 - 134
Nov 26, 2024 SA @ UTAH 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
San Antonio: 75.8% vs Utah: 73.7%
Assists (L5) +13.1% more
Utah: 28.4 vs San Antonio: 24.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Utah: 38.1% vs San Antonio: 36.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 106.0 130
SA Score 111.8 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 38.1 27.1 / 34.1
Assists 24.7 / 28.4 30.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.9 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 48.1 47.8 / 47.7
Free Throw % 75.8 / 73.7 78.6 / 91.9
Rebounding 45.6 / 42.4 48.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.4 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 16.9 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
UTAH
SA
UTAH
ML
60% 111-73
60% 96-63
58% 61-44
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 107-76-1
68% 108-51
58% 61-44
48% 40-43
TTL
74% 134-47-3
75% 119-39-1
100% 105-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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