Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Lakers GS @ LAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

2-0  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 9:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

0-2  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
WARRIORS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

65.6%

Lakers Cover

34.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.6%

LAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
107.48
GOLDEN STATE
103.47
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
113
GOLDEN STATE
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +31.4% more
Golden State: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Assists (L5) +25.5% more
Golden State: 27.6 vs Los Angeles: 20.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Golden State: 37.4% vs Los Angeles: 31.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Golden State: 45.3% vs Los Angeles: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 107.5 116
LAL Score 103.5 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 37.4 44.4 / 32.6
Assists 20.6 / 27.6 28.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.1 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 45.3 53.8 / 52.7
Free Throw % 78.8 / 76.4 80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 42.2 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.9 / 10.0 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 17.8 / 18.5 22.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
GS
LAL
GS
ML
61% 68-43
55% 95-79
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 101-73
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
77% 134-40
100% 91-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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