Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Pacers SA @ IND

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

3-0  |  Road

124
FINAL
Mon, Oct 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

2-0  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
SPURS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Indiana)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

31.8%

Pacers Cover

68.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

SA By 1-7 points

19.0%

SA By 8-14 points

8.3%

IND By 1-7 points

27.3%

IND By 8-14 points

22.7%

AI Model Projected Score
107.9
SAN ANTONIO
112.63
INDIANA
Simulated Score
120
SAN ANTONIO
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim Spurs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 IND @ SA 119 - 134
Jan 2, 2026 SA @ IND 123 - 113
Oct 13, 2025 SA @ IND 124 - 108
Jan 25, 2025 IND @ SA 136 - 98
Jan 23, 2025 SA @ IND 140 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.2% more
Indiana: 5.7 vs San Antonio: 3.8
Steals (L5) +50.5% more
Indiana: 10.0 vs San Antonio: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +31.5% more
Indiana: 21.1 vs San Antonio: 16.0
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
San Antonio: 47.5% vs Indiana: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 107.9 124
IND Score 112.6 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 33.3 46.3 / 40.5
Assists 26.9 / 26.5 24.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.7 / 3.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 47.5 46.9 / 47.8
Free Throw % 76.8 / 76.8 76.5 / 77.8
Rebounding 48.5 / 46.4 40.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.0 / 6.7 12.0 / 18.0
Turnovers 21.1 / 16.0 24.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
SA
IND
SA
ML
48% 47-50
60% 111-73
54% 45-38
58% 61-44
ATS
59% 57-40
58% 107-76-1
54% 45-38
58% 61-44
TTL
54% 52-45
74% 134-47-3
100% 83-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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