ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
3-1 | Road
90
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
4-1 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
CRIMSON TIDE
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ALA By 1-7 points
2.2%
ALA By 8-14 points
0.4%
ILL By 1-7 points
9.3%
ILL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama
57
ALABAMA
Illinois
76
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Alabama
82
ALABAMA
Illinois
87
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
ALA @ ILL
90 - 86
Nov 20, 2024
ILL @ ALA
87 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+26.3% more
Illinois: 45.8
vs
Alabama: 36.3
Turnovers (L5)
+8.9% more
Illinois: 10.0
vs
Alabama: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Illinois: 79.8%
vs
Alabama: 75.3%
Steals (L5)
+56.3% more
Alabama: 8.0
vs
Illinois: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALA Score
57.0
90
ILL Score
76.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 34.1
34.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.4 / 17.3
17.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.8
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 46.2
42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 75.3
59.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 36.3
40.0 / 38.0
Steals
3.5 / 8.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 9.2
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
ALA
ILL
ALA
ML
65%
24-13
63%
22-13
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
ATS
70%
26-11
60%
21-14
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
TTL
57%
21-16
63%
22-13
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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