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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

3-4  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

SIU EDWARDSVILLE

COUGARSSIUE

4-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
HORNETS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (SIU Edwardsville)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 CougarsSIUE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

0.0%

Cougars Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIUE -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIUE)

ALST By 1-7 points

0.0%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.0%

SIUE By 1-7 points

0.1%

SIUE By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ALABAMA STATE
105
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Simulated Score
71
ALABAMA STATE
76
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 ALST @ SIUE 68 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.9% more
SIU Edwardsville: 3.8 vs Alabama State: 3.3
Steals (L5) +42.0% more
Alabama State: 10.2 vs SIU Edwardsville: 5.9
Assists (L5) +37.6% more
Alabama State: 16.5 vs SIU Edwardsville: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Alabama State: 35.5% vs SIU Edwardsville: 29.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 67.0 68
SIUE Score 105.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 35.5 35.0 / 22.0
Assists 10.3 / 16.5 14.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.3 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 46.9 46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 70.4 67.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 36.6 41.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.9 / 10.2 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.7 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
SIUE Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
SIUE Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIUE
ALST
SIUE
ALST
ML
65% 20-11
65% 20-11
60% 18-12
76% 19-6
ATS
55% 17-14
65% 20-11
60% 18-12
76% 19-6
TTL
48% 15-16
52% 16-15
100% 30-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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