BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
5-2 | Road
81
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
3-6 | Home
48
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
KEYDETS
0%
FALCONS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VMI -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
BGSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
BGSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
VMI By 1-7 points
26.8%
VMI By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
54
BOWLING GREEN
VMI
60
VMI
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
78
BOWLING GREEN
VMI
65
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Keydets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Falcons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
BGSU @ VMI
81 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+50.1% more
Bowling Green: 12.5
vs
VMI: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+33.3% more
Bowling Green: 3.4
vs
VMI: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+27.9% more
Bowling Green: 13.7
vs
VMI: 9.9
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
Bowling Green: 13.3
vs
VMI: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
54.0
81
VMI Score
60.0
48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.6 / 33.0
11.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.2 / 13.3
3.0 / 20.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 45.3
20.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 74.0
78.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 32.8
29.0 / 51.0
Steals
6.3 / 12.5
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 13.7
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
BGSU
VMI
BGSU
ML
53%
17-15
66%
21-11
84%
27-5
56%
18-14
ATS
50%
16-16
72%
23-9
84%
27-5
56%
18-14
TTL
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
