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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

7-0  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 4:30 PM ET
Suncoast Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

6-1  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
SPARTANS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Carolina)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

34.5%

Tar Heels Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

MSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

MSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNC By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
MICHIGAN STATE
79
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
75
MICHIGAN STATE
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 MSU @ UNC 74 - 58
Nov 27, 2024 MSU @ UNC 94 - 91
Mar 23, 2024 MSU @ UNC 69 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
North Carolina: 74.8% vs Michigan State: 72.2%
Steals (L5) +40.6% more
Michigan State: 8.7 vs North Carolina: 5.2
Assists (L5) +20.3% more
Michigan State: 21.4 vs North Carolina: 17.0
Blocks (L5) +15.1% more
Michigan State: 5.8 vs North Carolina: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 75.0 74
UNC Score 79.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 36.4 17.0 / 50.0
Assists 17.0 / 21.4 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.9 / 5.8 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 47.6 38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 72.2 71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 44.1 / 41.0 30.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.2 / 8.7 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.4 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
UNC
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
MSU
UNC
MSU
ML
76% 25-8
71% 25-10
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
ATS
73% 24-9
71% 25-10
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
TTL
55% 18-15
49% 17-18
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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