PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
4-3 | Road
83
WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
5-1 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
BADGERS
0%
FRIARS
--
BADGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Wisconsin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIS -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)
PROV By 1-7 points
1.4%
PROV By 8-14 points
0.2%
WIS By 1-7 points
6.8%
WIS By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
49
PROVIDENCE
Wisconsin
70
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
Providence
69
PROVIDENCE
Wisconsin
73
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Badgers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Badgers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Badgers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Badgers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 27, 2025
PROV @ WIS
83 - 104
Nov 14, 2023
WIS @ PROV
59 - 72
Nov 15, 2021
PROV @ WIS
63 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Wisconsin: 79.9%
vs
Providence: 75.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Wisconsin: 31.5%
vs
Providence: 28.6%
Blocks (L5)
+14.7% more
Providence: 5.2
vs
Wisconsin: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+14.4% more
Providence: 16.5
vs
Wisconsin: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
49.0
83
WIS Score
70.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 28.6
35.0 / 39.0
Assists
14.1 / 16.5
21.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.2
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 47.0
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 75.7
67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
38.8 / 41.5
43.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.0
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 9.6
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
WIS
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
WIS
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
PROV
WIS
PROV
ML
60%
21-14
59%
19-13
69%
24-11
67%
20-10
ATS
51%
18-17
50%
16-16
69%
24-11
67%
20-10
TTL
57%
20-15
44%
14-18
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
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