ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
6-2 | Road
61
UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
6-1 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
HUSKIES
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (UConn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CONN -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
ILL By 1-7 points
2.2%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.4%
CONN By 1-7 points
9.3%
CONN By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
57
ILLINOIS
UConn
76
UCONN
Simulated Score
Illinois
74
ILLINOIS
UConn
78
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
ILL @ CONN
62 - 71
Nov 28, 2025
ILL @ CONN
61 - 74
Mar 30, 2024
ILL @ CONN
52 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+95.2% more
UConn: 8.6
vs
Illinois: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+16.8% more
UConn: 17.8
vs
Illinois: 15.2
Blocks (L5)
+25.6% more
Illinois: 5.4
vs
UConn: 4.0
Rebounding (L5)
+19.4% more
Illinois: 42.7
vs
UConn: 34.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
57.0
61
CONN Score
76.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 30.8
36.0 / 21.0
Assists
17.8 / 15.2
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.4
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 50.6
41.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
68.9 / 77.3
71.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 42.7
43.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.6 / 4.4
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 10.6
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
ILL
CONN
ILL
ML
76%
29-9
65%
24-13
66%
23-12
57%
20-15
ATS
74%
28-10
70%
26-11
66%
23-12
57%
20-15
TTL
50%
19-19
57%
21-16
100%
35-0
100%
35-0
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