TENNESSEE WESLEYAN
BULLDOGSTWU
0-0 | Road
77
TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
4-3 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
50%
TIGERS
50%
BULLDOGS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TNST -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)
TWU By 1-7 points
0.1%
TWU By 8-14 points
0.0%
TNST By 1-7 points
0.6%
TNST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee Wesleyan
68
TENNESSEE WESLEYAN
Tennessee State
100
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Tennessee Wesleyan
62
TENNESSEE WESLEYAN
Tennessee State
88
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
168
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
o0.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
TWU @ TNST
77 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+125.1% more
Tennessee State: 12.4
vs
Tennessee Wesleyan: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+63.4% more
Tennessee State: 13.9
vs
Tennessee Wesleyan: 8.5
Rebounding (L5)
+33.2% more
Tennessee State: 36.2
vs
Tennessee Wesleyan: 27.2
Turnovers (L5)
+20.0% more
Tennessee State: 16.1
vs
Tennessee Wesleyan: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TWU Score
68.0
77
TNST Score
100.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 24.7
0.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.9 / 8.5
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.8
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 30.5
55.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 71.0
77.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 27.2
44.0 / 31.0
Steals
12.4 / 5.5
14.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 13.4
16.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TWU
--
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TWU
--
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TWU
--
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
TWU
TNST
TWU
ML
52%
16-15
--
0-0
63%
17-10
--
0-0
ATS
68%
21-10
--
0-0
64%
18-10
100%
2-0
TTL
52%
16-15
--
0-0
100%
28-0
100%
2-0
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