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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

5-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 9:25 PM ET
Neville Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

7-2  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
WOLFPACK --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Auburn)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

0.0%

Tigers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AUB -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

NCSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NCSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AUB By 1-7 points

0.1%

AUB By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
43
NC STATE
81
AUBURN
Simulated Score
70
NC STATE
78
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 NCSU @ AUB 73 - 83
Dec 19, 2019 NCSU @ AUB 73 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.5% more
Auburn: 4.1 vs NC State: 3.1
Steals (L5) +29.9% more
Auburn: 8.7 vs NC State: 6.7
Assists (L5) +8.5% more
NC State: 14.8 vs Auburn: 13.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
NC State: 41.9% vs Auburn: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 43.0 73
AUB Score 81.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 41.9 55.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.8 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.1 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 49.6 59.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 75.3 86.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 33.7 35.0 / 22.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.7 3.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.6 20.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
NCSU
AUB
NCSU
ML
58% 22-16
59% 20-14
75% 24-8
55% 18-15
ATS
74% 28-10
71% 24-10
75% 24-8
55% 18-15
TTL
53% 20-18
71% 24-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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