Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoosiers @ Cardinals IU @ LOU

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

7-2  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 2:15 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

8-1  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
HOOSIERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Louisville)
HoosiersIU (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoosiers Cover

8.1%

Cardinals Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

IU By 1-7 points

5.8%

IU By 8-14 points

1.4%

LOU By 1-7 points

16.9%

LOU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
INDIANA
88
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
65
INDIANA
78
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 IU @ LOU 78 - 87
Nov 27, 2024 LOU @ IU 89 - 61
Nov 20, 2023 IU @ LOU 74 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +26.0% more
Louisville: 44.0 vs Indiana: 34.9
Blocks (L5) +17.3% more
Louisville: 3.9 vs Indiana: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Louisville: 78.1% vs Indiana: 70.8%
Steals (L5) +18.8% more
Indiana: 7.1 vs Louisville: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 74.0 78
LOU Score 88.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 33.3 42.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.6 / 18.3 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.3 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 45.9 46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 70.8 86.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 44.0 / 34.9 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.1 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 9.0 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
IU
LOU
IU
ML
63% 22-13
66% 21-11
71% 24-10
71% 22-9
ATS
71% 25-10
53% 17-15
71% 24-10
71% 22-9
TTL
63% 22-13
56% 18-14
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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