Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mocs @ Tigers UTC @ AUB

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

5-6  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 4:50 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

8-3  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
MOCS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Auburn)
MocsUTC (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mocs Cover

0.0%

Tigers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AUB -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

UTC By 1-7 points

0.0%

UTC By 8-14 points

0.0%

AUB By 1-7 points

0.0%

AUB By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
41
CHATTANOOGA
83
AUBURN
Simulated Score
63
CHATTANOOGA
85
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 UTC @ AUB 78 - 92
Dec 30, 2023 UTC @ AUB 66 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +124.9% more
Auburn: 5.2 vs Chattanooga: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +35.9% more
Auburn: 13.6 vs Chattanooga: 10.0
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Auburn: 7.2 vs Chattanooga: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
Auburn: 78.5% vs Chattanooga: 72.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTC Score 41.0 78
AUB Score 83.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 38.4 37.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.6 / 18.2 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.2 / 2.3 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 47.1 49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 72.6 78.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 40.9 42.0 / 20.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.5 1.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 10.0 13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
AUB Advantage
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC Advantage
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
UTC
AUB
UTC
ML
58% 22-16
48% 15-16
75% 24-8
53% 16-14
ATS
74% 28-10
52% 16-15
75% 24-8
55% 17-14
TTL
53% 20-18
77% 24-7
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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