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TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

1-7  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Reynolds Coliseum
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

7-4  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
TIGERS --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (NC State)
TigersTXSO (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

27.4%

Wolfpack Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

TXSO By 1-7 points

16.9%

TXSO By 8-14 points

6.8%

NCSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

NCSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
TEXAS SOUTHERN
44
NC STATE
Simulated Score
62
TEXAS SOUTHERN
81
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 TXSO @ NCSU 72 - 108
Nov 21, 2021 TXSO @ NCSU 57 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +75.0% more
NC State: 16.5 vs Texas Southern: 9.4
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
NC State: 7.8 vs Texas Southern: 7.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.9% more
NC State: 38.5 vs Texas Southern: 35.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
NC State: 33.8% vs Texas Southern: 27.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 38.0 72
NCSU Score 44.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 27.9 43.0 / 21.0
Assists 16.5 / 9.4 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.5 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 41.5 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 76.0 85.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 35.0 45.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.0 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 16.2 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
TXSO
NCSU
TXSO
ML
59% 20-14
64% 18-10
55% 18-15
71% 17-7
ATS
71% 24-10
61% 17-11
55% 18-15
71% 17-7
TTL
71% 24-10
71% 20-8
100% 33-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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