THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
3-8 | Road
78
CHARLESTON
COUGARSCOFC
5-6 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
COUGARS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
CHARLESTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Charleston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COFC -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COFC)
CIT By 1-7 points
0.1%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.0%
COFC By 1-7 points
0.6%
COFC By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
The Citadel
57
THE CITADEL
Charleston
89
CHARLESTON
Simulated Score
The Citadel
67
THE CITADEL
Charleston
82
CHARLESTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 17, 2025
CIT @ COFC
78 - 82
Nov 20, 2024
COFC @ CIT
76 - 61
Dec 14, 2023
CIT @ COFC
71 - 86
Dec 3, 2022
COFC @ CIT
79 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+132.6% more
Charleston: 5.0
vs
The Citadel: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+18.4% more
Charleston: 10.9
vs
The Citadel: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.5%
Charleston: 71.2%
vs
The Citadel: 64.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Charleston: 29.9%
vs
The Citadel: 25.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIT Score
57.0
78
COFC Score
89.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 25.3
29.0 / 38.0
Assists
11.4 / 12.0
14.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.2
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 41.0
50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 64.7
76.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 34.0
33.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.4 / 5.7
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 9.2
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
COFC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
COFC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
COFC
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COFC
CIT
COFC
CIT
ML
66%
19-10
59%
19-13
62%
18-11
62%
20-12
ATS
59%
17-12
62%
20-12
62%
18-11
64%
21-12
TTL
68%
19-9-1
53%
17-15
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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