OAKLAND
GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK
5-6 | Road
82
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
9-3 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
100%
NORSE
0%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NKU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
OAK By 1-7 points
24.3%
OAK By 8-14 points
13.7%
NKU By 1-7 points
26.2%
NKU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Oakland
39
OAKLAND
Northern Kentucky
40
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Oakland
68
OAKLAND
Northern Kentucky
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Norse
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Norse (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 79.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
NKU @ OAK
85 - 84
Feb 1, 2026
NKU @ OAK
65 - 76
Dec 17, 2025
OAK @ NKU
82 - 77
Feb 1, 2025
NKU @ OAK
84 - 75
Jan 11, 2025
OAK @ NKU
68 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.5% more
Northern Kentucky: 9.8
vs
Oakland: 7.5
Turnovers (L5)
+10.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 12.7
vs
Oakland: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Northern Kentucky: 71.4%
vs
Oakland: 69.4%
Assists (L5)
+16.2% more
Oakland: 18.1
vs
Northern Kentucky: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OAK Score
39.0
82
NKU Score
40.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 32.9
23.0 / 33.0
Assists
15.2 / 18.1
19.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.2
9.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 48.3
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 69.4
75.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 35.7
38.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.8 / 7.5
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 11.4
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OAK
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.0
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
OAK
NKU
OAK
ML
53%
18-16
62%
20-12
65%
22-12
59%
19-13
ATS
56%
19-15
50%
16-16
65%
22-12
59%
19-13
TTL
68%
23-11
62%
20-12
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
