Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Hose @ Pirates PRES @ ECU

PRESBYTERIAN

BLUE HOSEPRES

6-6  |  Road

53
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

4-7  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE HOSE
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
BLUE HOSE --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
PRESBYTERIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Presbyterian)
Blue HosePRES (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Hose Cover

97.1%

Pirates Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PRES -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRES)

PRES By 1-7 points

9.3%

PRES By 8-14 points

20.1%

ECU By 1-7 points

2.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
55
PRESBYTERIAN
36
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
PRESBYTERIAN
78
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Hose Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Hose (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 PRES @ ECU 53 - 74
Nov 12, 2022 PRES @ ECU 57 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.4% more
Presbyterian: 13.5 vs East Carolina: 10.8
Assists (L5) +15.9% more
Presbyterian: 12.7 vs East Carolina: 10.7
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Presbyterian: 40.0 vs East Carolina: 36.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Presbyterian: 34.3% vs East Carolina: 25.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRES Score 55.0 53
ECU Score 36.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.2 / 34.3 33.0 / 9.0
Assists 10.7 / 12.7 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.9 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.8 / 47.4 55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 63.1 85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 40.0 27.0 / 26.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.3 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 13.5 16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRES Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: +0.7
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRES Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: +0.7
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PRES
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
PRES
ECU
PRES
ML
55% 17-14
69% 22-10
55% 17-14
80% 24-6
ATS
52% 16-15
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
80% 24-6
TTL
61% 19-12
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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