MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
12-14 | Road
116
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
17-9 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MEM By 1-7 points
27.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
20.1%
MIN By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
110
MEMPHIS
Minnesota
107
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
MEM @ MIN
110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026
MIN @ MEM
128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026
MIN @ MEM
131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025
MEM @ MIN
116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025
MIN @ MEM
141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+27.7% more
Memphis: 5.6
vs
Minnesota: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+12.5% more
Memphis: 30.8
vs
Minnesota: 26.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Memphis: 39.1%
vs
Minnesota: 34.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Memphis: 78.9%
vs
Minnesota: 74.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
110.0
116
MIN Score
107.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 39.1
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
26.9 / 30.8
26.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.6
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 49.2
40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 78.9
70.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 43.2
52.0 / 54.0
Steals
8.3 / 8.8
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.1
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MEM
MIN
MEM
ML
54%
63-53
57%
59-44
54%
50-43
50%
41-41
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38
54%
50-43
50%
41-41
TTL
63%
72-43-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
93-0
100%
82-0
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