Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Titans KC @ TEN

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-8  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

2-12  |  Home

26
Key Game
Marcus Harris
KEY GAME

Marcus Harris

#96 | Defensive Tackle
@
Joey Slye
KEY GAME

Joey Slye

#6 | Place kicker
Player
Marcus Harris None-None
Joey Slye None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
CHIEFS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

69.1%

Titans Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.5%

KC By 7-13 points

19.3%

TEN By 1-6 points

12.9%

TEN By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
KANSAS CITY
20
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
KANSAS CITY
27
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 KC @ TEN 9 - 26
Nov 6, 2022 TEN @ KC 17 - 20
Oct 24, 2021 KC @ TEN 3 - 27
Jan 19, 2020 TEN @ KC 24 - 35
Nov 10, 2019 KC @ TEN 32 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +35.3% more
Kansas City: 229.5 vs Tennessee: 148.4
First Downs (L5) +32.6% more
Kansas City: 20.4 vs Tennessee: 13.8
Turnovers (L5) +29.9% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Tennessee: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Kansas City: 349.1 vs Tennessee: 256.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 27.0 9
TEN Score 20.0 26
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
KC
TEN
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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