Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Cowboys LAC @ DAL

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

10-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

6-7-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
CHARGERS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Dallas)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

21.6%

Cowboys Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

LAC By 1-6 points

10.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

6.6%

DAL By 1-6 points

14.7%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20
LOS ANGELES
31
DALLAS
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 LAC @ DAL 34 - 17
Oct 16, 2023 DAL @ LAC 20 - 17
Sep 19, 2021 DAL @ LAC 20 - 17
Nov 23, 2017 LAC @ DAL 28 - 6
Sep 29, 2013 DAL @ LAC 21 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +102.8% more
Dallas: 304.6 vs Los Angeles: 150.2
Total Yards (L5) +42.5% more
Dallas: 418.6 vs Los Angeles: 293.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +37.0% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.5
First Downs (L5) +34.5% more
Dallas: 23.9 vs Los Angeles: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 20.0 34
DAL Score 31.0 17
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
DAL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
DAL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
DAL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
LAC
DAL
LAC
ML
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0-1
0% 0-3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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