Home / NFL Projections NFL / Eagles @ Commanders PHI @ WSH

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

9-5  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 5:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

4-10  |  Home

18
Key Game
Jonathan Jones
KEY GAME

Jonathan Jones

#31 | Cornerback
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Jonathan Jones None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
EAGLES --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
EaglesPHI (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

30.9%

Commanders Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSH +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PHI By 1-6 points

16.5%

PHI By 7-13 points

19.3%

WSH By 1-6 points

12.9%

WSH By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
28
PHILADELPHIA
21
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
PHILADELPHIA
27
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 WSH @ PHI 22 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 24 - 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI @ WSH 29 - 18
Jan 26, 2025 WSH @ PHI 23 - 55
Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WSH 33 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Philadelphia: 215.7 vs Washington: 184.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Philadelphia: 352.5 vs Washington: 318.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.9% more
Washington: 1.9 vs Philadelphia: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 28.0 29
WSH Score 21.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 20.4 15.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 184.8 / 215.7 130.0 / 178.0
Rushing Yards 133.3 / 136.9 90.0 / 207.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.2 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 318.1 / 352.5 220.0 / 385.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.7 4.3 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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