Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Tigers VAN @ MEM

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

10-0  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 7:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

4-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
COMMODORES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Memphis)
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 TigersMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

VAN By 1-7 points

24.3%

VAN By 8-14 points

13.7%

MEM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
VANDERBILT
39
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
75
VANDERBILT
68
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Commodores (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 VAN @ MEM 77 - 70
Dec 23, 2023 VAN @ MEM 75 - 77
Nov 7, 2022 MEM @ VAN 76 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.3% more
Memphis: 11.9 vs Vanderbilt: 10.4
Assists (L5) +35.7% more
Vanderbilt: 19.2 vs Memphis: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Vanderbilt: 79.5% vs Memphis: 71.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Vanderbilt: 49.2% vs Memphis: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 38.0 77
MEM Score 39.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 33.5 20.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.3 / 19.2 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.3 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 49.2 36.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 79.5 77.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 39.2 39.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.2 / 8.8 13.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.4 20.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
VAN
MEM
VAN
ML
62% 20-12
69% 25-11
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
ATS
62% 20-12
78% 28-8
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
TTL
66% 21-11
58% 21-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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