MERCER
BEARSMER
7-3 | Road
63
UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
8-1 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
KNIGHTS
0%
BEARS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UCF)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)
MER By 1-7 points
24.3%
MER By 8-14 points
13.7%
UCF By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCF By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
38
MERCER
UCF
39
UCF
Simulated Score
Mercer
65
MERCER
UCF
78
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knights (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 17, 2025
MER @ UCF
63 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+20.9%
UCF: 80.3%
vs
Mercer: 59.5%
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
UCF: 16.4
vs
Mercer: 14.8
Rebounding (L5)
+10.4% more
UCF: 41.4
vs
Mercer: 37.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
UCF: 50.0%
vs
Mercer: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
38.0
63
UCF Score
39.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 31.4
33.0 / 28.0
Assists
16.4 / 14.8
13.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 46.6
44.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
80.3 / 59.5
76.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 37.5
44.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.6 / 9.1
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 9.6
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
UCF
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
UCF
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
MER
UCF
MER
ML
55%
18-15
55%
17-14
65%
20-11
71%
22-9
ATS
55%
18-15
58%
18-13
65%
20-11
71%
22-9
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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