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UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

7-3  |  Road

60
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

8-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
CARDINAL
100%
MAVERICKS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
88.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

94.5%

Cardinal Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

13.7%

UTA By 8-14 points

24.3%

STAN By 1-7 points

4.0%

STAN By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
52
UT ARLINGTON
36
STANFORD
Simulated Score
63
UT ARLINGTON
75
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 88.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 UTA @ STAN 60 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +24.0% more
UT Arlington: 4.3 vs Stanford: 3.2
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
Stanford: 13.8 vs UT Arlington: 11.2
Steals (L5) +17.7% more
Stanford: 7.9 vs UT Arlington: 6.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.5%
Stanford: 40.2% vs UT Arlington: 25.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 52.0 60
STAN Score 36.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 25.6 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.8 / 11.2 13.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.3 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 43.4 48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 70.7 78.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 36.9 32.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.7 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 13.4 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
UTA
STAN
UTA
ML
48% 16-17
50% 16-16
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
ATS
48% 16-17
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
TTL
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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