Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Warhawks MORE @ ULM

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

3-4  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

1-5  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
WARHAWKS
0%
EAGLES --
WARHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UL Monroe)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 WarhawksULM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

13.6%

Warhawks Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ULM -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

MORE By 1-7 points

9.3%

MORE By 8-14 points

2.7%

ULM By 1-7 points

21.6%

ULM By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
60
MOREHEAD STATE
71
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
75
MOREHEAD STATE
65
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warhawks (+32.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MORE @ ULM 83 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
Morehead State: 9.3 vs UL Monroe: 6.7
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Morehead State: 14.3 vs UL Monroe: 12.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Morehead State: 46.4% vs UL Monroe: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 60.0 83
ULM Score 71.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 32.3 30.0 / 44.0
Assists 12.9 / 14.3 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.5 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 46.4 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 70.7 76.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 37.7 37.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.7 / 9.3 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 13.8 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
MORE
ULM
MORE
ML
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
68% 21-10
ATS
78% 25-7
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
68% 21-10
TTL
59% 19-13
53% 17-15
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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