NOBEL
KNIGHTSNOB
0-0 | Road
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
2-5 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
KNIGHTS
--
THUNDERBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
97.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
SOUTHERN UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Southern Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SUU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SUU)
NOB By 1-7 points
0.5%
NOB By 8-14 points
0.1%
SUU By 1-7 points
3.3%
SUU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Nobel
36
NOBEL
Southern Utah
61
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
Nobel
52
NOBEL
Southern Utah
85
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunderbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Thunderbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 97.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
NOB @ SUU
68 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+130.3% more
Southern Utah: 4.0
vs
Nobel: 1.8
Assists (L5)
+56.9% more
Southern Utah: 12.7
vs
Nobel: 8.1
Rebounding (L5)
+12.4% more
Southern Utah: 33.2
vs
Nobel: 29.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Southern Utah: 43.1%
vs
Nobel: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NOB Score
36.0
68
SUU Score
61.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.1 / 24.0
42.0 / 17.0
Assists
12.7 / 8.1
16.0 / 5.0
Blocks
4.0 / 1.8
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 33.6
54.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 70.1
81.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 29.5
38.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.6 / 4.9
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 18.7
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NOB
--
SUU
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NOB
--
SUU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NOB
--
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
NOB
SUU
NOB
ML
61%
19-12
100%
6-0
68%
21-10
100%
6-0
ATS
71%
22-9
100%
6-0
69%
22-10
100%
6-0
TTL
52%
16-15
67%
4-2
100%
32-0
100%
6-0
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