MIDWAY UNIVERSITY
EAGLESMIDW
0-0 | Road
84
MOREHEAD STATE
EAGLESMORE
1-0 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
EAGLES
0%
EAGLES
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Morehead State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORE -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)
MIDW By 1-7 points
0.1%
MIDW By 8-14 points
0.0%
MORE By 1-7 points
0.6%
MORE By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Midway University
36
MIDWAY UNIVERSITY
Morehead State
68
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
Midway University
52
MIDWAY UNIVERSITY
Morehead State
95
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Loss
Proj Total: 104.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
MIDW @ MORE
84 - 89
Nov 22, 2023
MIDW @ MORE
53 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+16.1% more
Morehead State: 35.3
vs
Midway University: 30.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Morehead State: 31.7%
vs
Midway University: 24.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Morehead State: 37.9%
vs
Midway University: 33.6%
Steals (L5)
+32.7% more
Midway University: 7.6
vs
Morehead State: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIDW Score
36.0
84
MORE Score
68.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 24.2
56.0 / 48.0
Assists
10.0 / 9.7
21.0 / 24.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.0
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.9 / 33.6
61.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 70.0
64.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 30.4
28.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.6
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 12.4
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIDW
--
MORE
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIDW
--
MORE
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MIDW
--
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
MIDW
MORE
MIDW
ML
62%
20-12
75%
3-1
68%
21-10
100%
4-0
ATS
59%
19-13
75%
3-1
68%
21-10
100%
4-0
TTL
53%
17-15
25%
1-3
100%
31-0
100%
4-0
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