Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gators @ Gauchos SFST @ UCSB

SAN FRANCISCO STATE

GATORSSFST

0-0  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 9:00 PM ET
The Thunderdome
View Odds Details →

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

1-0  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
100%
📊
GAUCHOS
0%
GATORS --
GAUCHOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
GatorsSFST (-3.5) 0 GauchosUCSB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gators Cover

21.2%

Gauchos Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSB -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)

SFST By 1-7 points

13.7%

SFST By 8-14 points

4.8%

UCSB By 1-7 points

25.3%

UCSB By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
38
SAN FRANCISCO STATE
46
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
62
SAN FRANCISCO STATE
88
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gauchos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gauchos (+157.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Gauchos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 SFST @ UCSB 67 - 98
Nov 4, 2024 SFST @ UCSB 47 - 96
Nov 7, 2022 SFST @ UCSB 59 - 75
Nov 10, 2021 SFST @ UCSB 65 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +183.8% more
UC Santa Barbara: 4.0 vs San Francisco State: 1.4
Assists (L5) +31.5% more
UC Santa Barbara: 13.9 vs San Francisco State: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
UC Santa Barbara: 37.5% vs San Francisco State: 32.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
UC Santa Barbara: 78.0% vs San Francisco State: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFST Score 38.0 67
UCSB Score 46.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 26.5 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.9 / 10.6 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.0 / 1.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 37.5 / 32.0 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 74.0 63.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 30.9 61.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.8 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 15.0 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFST
--
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFST
--
UCSB Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SFST
--
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
SFST
UCSB
SFST
ML
59% 19-13
100% 2-0
72% 23-9
100% 2-0
ATS
62% 20-12
100% 2-0
72% 23-9
100% 2-0
TTL
47% 15-17
50% 1-1
100% 32-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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