PACIFIC LUTHERAN
LUTESPACLTH
0-0 | Road
79
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
1-1 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
LUTES
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
LUTES
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
189.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-55.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +55.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -55.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
PACLTH By 1-7 points
0.0%
PACLTH By 8-14 points
0.0%
CP By 1-7 points
0.0%
CP By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pacific Lutheran
67
PACIFIC LUTHERAN
Cal Poly
122
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Pacific Lutheran
52
PACIFIC LUTHERAN
Cal Poly
85
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -55.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Win
Proj Total: 189.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 5, 2025
PACLTH @ CP
79 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+79.9% more
Cal Poly: 7.8
vs
Pacific Lutheran: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+55.6% more
Cal Poly: 17.6
vs
Pacific Lutheran: 11.3
Blocks (L5)
+37.1% more
Cal Poly: 2.4
vs
Pacific Lutheran: 1.8
Rebounding (L5)
+35.3% more
Cal Poly: 34.1
vs
Pacific Lutheran: 25.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PACLTH Score
67.0
79
CP Score
122.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 34.3
29.0 / 33.0
Assists
17.6 / 11.3
20.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.4 / 1.8
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 33.8
46.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 69.5
77.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 25.2
49.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.8 / 4.3
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 15.6
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PACLTH
--
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PACLTH
--
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PACLTH
--
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
PACLTH
CP
PACLTH
ML
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
ATS
64%
21-12
100%
1-0
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
TTL
61%
20-13
100%
1-0
100%
33-0
100%
1-0
