SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
KNIGHTSSVA
0-0 | Road
46
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
2-1 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
KNIGHTS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (South Carolina Upstate)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UPST -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)
SVA By 1-7 points
1.7%
SVA By 8-14 points
0.3%
UPST By 1-7 points
8.0%
UPST By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Virginia
76
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
South Carolina Upstate
96
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
Southern Virginia
65
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
South Carolina Upstate
78
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
SVA @ UPST
46 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+101.8% more
South Carolina Upstate: 3.3
vs
Southern Virginia: 1.6
Steals (L5)
+53.3% more
South Carolina Upstate: 8.1
vs
Southern Virginia: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+20.0% more
South Carolina Upstate: 9.8
vs
Southern Virginia: 8.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+12.0%
South Carolina Upstate: 45.4%
vs
Southern Virginia: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SVA Score
76.0
46
UPST Score
96.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 20.9
39.0 / 13.0
Assists
9.8 / 8.2
20.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.3 / 1.6
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 33.4
48.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 67.7
76.0 / 47.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 31.4
52.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.3
15.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 16.6
5.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SVA
--
UPST
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SVA
--
UPST
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SVA
--
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
SVA
UPST
SVA
ML
61%
19-12
100%
2-0
83%
25-5
100%
2-0
ATS
61%
19-12
100%
2-0
83%
25-5
100%
2-0
TTL
52%
16-15
50%
1-1
100%
30-0
100%
2-0
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