NORTH GREENVILLE
CRUSADERSNGU
0-0 | Road
57
THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
2-3 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
CRUSADERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
CRUSADERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (The Citadel)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIT -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)
NGU By 1-7 points
1.1%
NGU By 8-14 points
0.1%
CIT By 1-7 points
5.8%
CIT By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Greenville
58
NORTH GREENVILLE
The Citadel
80
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
North Greenville
62
NORTH GREENVILLE
The Citadel
85
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
NGU @ CIT
57 - 70
Nov 14, 2024
NGU @ CIT
54 - 79
Nov 16, 2023
NGU @ CIT
59 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.2% more
The Citadel: 5.2
vs
North Greenville: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+8.4% more
The Citadel: 14.4
vs
North Greenville: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
The Citadel: 66.6%
vs
North Greenville: 59.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+37.1% more
North Greenville: 14.7
vs
The Citadel: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NGU Score
58.0
57
CIT Score
80.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 37.6
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.4 / 13.3
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.4
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 43.2
48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 59.7
68.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 36.3
32.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 14.7
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NGU
--
CIT
Advantage
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NGU
--
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NGU
--
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
NGU
CIT
NGU
ML
59%
19-13
100%
2-0
62%
20-12
50%
1-1
ATS
62%
20-12
100%
2-0
64%
21-12
50%
1-1
TTL
53%
17-15
50%
1-1
100%
33-0
100%
2-0
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