NOBEL
KNIGHTSNOB
0-0 | Road
54
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
1-4 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
BEACH
0%
KNIGHTS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Long Beach State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
NOB By 1-7 points
2.7%
NOB By 8-14 points
0.5%
LBSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
LBSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Nobel
94
NOBEL
Long Beach State
112
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Nobel
12
NOBEL
Long Beach State
98
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beach
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beach (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -86.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o158.5
Loss
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
NOB @ LBSU
54 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+22.2% more
Long Beach State: 2.0
vs
Nobel: 1.7
Rebounding (L5)
+21.7% more
Long Beach State: 33.9
vs
Nobel: 27.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.2%
Long Beach State: 42.0%
vs
Nobel: 31.8%
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Long Beach State: 10.7
vs
Nobel: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NOB Score
94.0
54
LBSU Score
112.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 23.7
37.0 / 29.0
Assists
10.7 / 9.8
18.0 / 3.0
Blocks
2.0 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 31.8
46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
62.5 / 68.8
75.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 27.9
46.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.5 / 9.7
13.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 17.1
12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NOB
--
LBSU
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NOB
--
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NOB
--
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
NOB
LBSU
NOB
ML
55%
17-14
100%
6-0
65%
20-11
100%
6-0
ATS
68%
21-10
100%
6-0
65%
20-11
100%
6-0
TTL
61%
19-12
67%
4-2
100%
31-0
100%
6-0
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