ROCKFORD
REGENTSROCKF
0-0 | Road
48
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
3-2 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
REGENTS
100%
REDBIRDS
0%
REGENTS
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-62.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +62.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -62.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
ROCKF By 1-7 points
0.0%
ROCKF By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILST By 1-7 points
0.0%
ILST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Rockford
40
ROCKFORD
Illinois State
102
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Rockford
52
ROCKFORD
Illinois State
85
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -62.0
D
Sim
Redbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
ROCKF @ ILST
48 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+19.8% more
Illinois State: 35.8
vs
Rockford: 29.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.4%
Illinois State: 74.6%
vs
Rockford: 63.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Illinois State: 44.4%
vs
Rockford: 36.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Illinois State: 31.2%
vs
Rockford: 28.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ROCKF Score
40.0
48
ILST Score
102.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 28.3
48.0 / 22.0
Assists
11.0 / 10.3
19.0 / 8.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.0
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 36.7
59.0 / 28.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 63.1
38.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 29.9
48.0 / 27.0
Steals
3.7 / 6.8
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 17.5
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ROCKF
--
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ROCKF
--
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ROCKF
--
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
ROCKF
ILST
ROCKF
ML
42%
15-21
100%
1-0
71%
24-10
100%
1-0
ATS
58%
21-15
100%
1-0
71%
24-10
100%
1-0
TTL
58%
21-15
100%
1-0
100%
34-0
100%
1-0
Contextual Game News
