TEXAS LUTHERAN
BULLDOGSTL
0-0 | Road
41
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
6-2 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-57.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +57.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -57.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
TL By 1-7 points
0.0%
TL By 8-14 points
0.0%
TXST By 1-7 points
0.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas Lutheran
40
TEXAS LUTHERAN
Texas State
97
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Texas Lutheran
57
TEXAS LUTHERAN
Texas State
88
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -57.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
TL @ TXST
41 - 93
Nov 5, 2019
TL @ TXST
45 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+221.4% more
Texas State: 5.1
vs
Texas Lutheran: 1.6
Steals (L5)
+55.8% more
Texas State: 8.3
vs
Texas Lutheran: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+50.3% more
Texas State: 13.1
vs
Texas Lutheran: 8.7
Rebounding (L5)
+33.2% more
Texas State: 37.7
vs
Texas Lutheran: 28.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TL Score
40.0
41
TXST Score
97.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.1 / 22.6
29.0 / 20.0
Assists
13.1 / 8.7
21.0 / 7.0
Blocks
5.1 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 28.2
54.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 72.1
60.0 / 36.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 28.3
53.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.3
18.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 15.9
11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TL
--
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TL
--
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TL
--
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
TL
TXST
TL
ML
42%
13-18
100%
2-0
83%
25-5
100%
2-0
ATS
48%
15-16
100%
2-0
84%
26-5
100%
2-0
TTL
65%
20-11
100%
2-0
100%
31-0
100%
2-0
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